WASHINGTON (AP) —
The ranks of America's poor are on track to climb to levels unseen in
nearly half a century, erasing gains from the war on poverty in the
1960s amid a weak economy and fraying government safety net.
Census figures for 2011 will be released this fall in the critical weeks ahead of the November elections.
The
Associated Press surveyed more than a dozen economists, think tanks and
academics, both nonpartisan and those with known liberal or
conservative leanings, and found a broad consensus: The official poverty
rate will rise from 15.1 percent in 2010, climbing as high as 15.7
percent. Several predicted a more modest gain, but even a 0.1 percentage
point increase would put poverty at the highest level since 1965.
Poverty
is spreading at record levels across many groups, from underemployed
workers and suburban families to the poorest poor. More discouraged
workers are giving up on the job market, leaving them vulnerable as unemployment
aid begins to run out. Suburbs are seeing increases in poverty,
including in such political battlegrounds as Colorado, Florida and
Nevada, where voters are coping with a new norm of living hand to mouth.
"I
grew up going to Hawaii every summer. Now I'm here, applying for
assistance because it's hard to make ends meet. It's very hard to
adjust," said Laura Fritz,
27, of Wheat Ridge, Colo., describing her slide from rich to poor as
she filled out aid forms at a county center. Since 2000, large swaths of
Jefferson County just outside Denver have seen poverty nearly double.
Fritz
says she grew up wealthy in the Denver suburb of Highlands Ranch, but
fortunes turned after her parents lost a significant amount of money in
the housing bust. Stuck in a half-million dollar house, her parents
began living off food stamps and Fritz's college money evaporated. She tried joining the Army but was injured during basic training.
Now
she's living on disability, with an infant daughter and a boyfriend,
Garrett Goudeseune, 25, who can't find work as a landscaper. They are
struggling to pay their $650 rent on his unemployment checks and don't
know how they would get by without the extra help as they hope for the
job market to improve.
In an
election year dominated by discussion of the middle class, Fritz's case
highlights a dim reality for the growing group in poverty. Millions
could fall through the cracks as government aid from unemployment
insurance, Medicaid, welfare and food stamps diminishes.
"The
issues aren't just with public benefits. We have some deep problems in
the economy," said Peter Edelman, director of the Georgetown Center on
Poverty, Inequality and Public Policy.
He pointed to the recent
recession but also longer-term changes in the economy such as
globalization, automation, outsourcing, immigration, and less
unionization that have pushed median household income lower. Even after
strong economic growth in the 1990s, poverty never fell below a 1973 low
of 11.1 percent. That low point came after President Lyndon Johnson's
war on poverty, launched in 1964, that created Medicaid, Medicare and
other social welfare programs.
"I'm reluctant to say that we've
gone back to where we were in the 1960s. The programs we enacted make a
big difference. The problem is that the tidal wave of low-wage jobs is
dragging us down and the wage problem is not going to go away anytime
soon," Edelman said.
Stacey Mazer of the National Association of
State Budget Officers said states will be watching for poverty increases
when figures are released in September as they make decisions about the
Medicaid expansion. Most states generally assume poverty levels will
hold mostly steady and they will hesitate if the findings show
otherwise. "It's a constant tension in the budget," she said.
The
predictions for 2011 are based on separate AP interviews, supplemented
with research on suburban poverty from Alan Berube of the Brookings
Institution and an analysis of federal spending by the Congressional
Research Service and Elise Gould of the Economic Policy Institute.
The
analysts' estimates suggest that some 47 million people in the U.S., or
1 in 6, were poor last year. An increase of one-tenth of a percentage
point to 15.2 percent would tie the 1983 rate, the highest since 1965.
The highest level on record was 22.4 percent in 1959, when the
government began calculating poverty figures.
Poverty is closely tied to joblessness. While the unemployment rate
improved from 9.6 percent in 2010 to 8.9 percent in 2011, the
employment-population ratio remained largely unchanged, meaning many
discouraged workers simply stopped looking for work. Food stamp rolls,
another indicator of poverty, also grew.
Demographers also say:
—Poverty
will remain above the pre-recession level of 12.5 percent for many more
years. Several predicted that peak poverty levels — 15 percent to 16
percent — will last at least until 2014, due to expiring unemployment benefits, a jobless rate persistently above 6 percent and weak wage growth.
—Suburban poverty, already at a record level of 11.8 percent, will increase again in 2011.
—Part-time or underemployed workers, who saw a record 15 percent poverty in 2010, will rise to a new high.
—Poverty among people 65 and older will remain at historically low levels, buoyed by Social Security cash payments.
—Child poverty will increase from its 22 percent level in 2010.
Analysts also believe that the poorest poor, defined as those at 50 percent or less of the poverty level, will remain near its peak level of 6.7 percent.
"I've
always been the guy who could find a job. Now I'm not," said Dale
Szymanski, 56, a Teamsters Union forklift operator and convention hand
who lives outside Las Vegas in Clark County. In a state where
unemployment ranks highest in the nation, the Las Vegas suburbs have
seen a particularly rapid increase in poverty from 9.7 percent in 2007
to 14.7 percent.
Szymanski, who moved from Wisconsin in 2000, said
he used to make a decent living of more than $40,000 a year but now
doesn't work enough hours to qualify for union health care. He changed
apartments several months ago and sold his aging 2001 Chrysler Sebring
in April to pay expenses.
"You keep thinking it's going to turn around. But I'm stuck," he said.
The
2010 poverty level was $22,314 for a family of four, and $11,139 for an
individual, based on an official government calculation that includes
only cash income, before tax deductions. It excludes capital gains or
accumulated wealth, such as home ownership, as well as noncash aid such
as food stamps and tax credits, which were expanded substantially under President Barack Obama's stimulus package.
An
additional 9 million people in 2010 would have been counted above the
poverty line if food stamps and tax credits were taken into account.
Robert
Rector, a senior research fellow at the conservative Heritage
Foundation, believes the social safety net has worked and it is now time
to cut back. He worries that advocates may use a rising poverty rate to
justify additional spending on the poor, when in fact, he says, many
live in decent-size homes, drive cars and own wide-screen TVs.
A
new census measure accounts for noncash aid, but that supplemental
poverty figure isn't expected to be released until after the November
election. Since that measure is relatively new, the official rate
remains the best gauge of year-to-year changes in poverty dating back to
1959.
Few people advocate cuts in anti-poverty programs. Roughly
79 percent of Americans think the gap between rich and poor has grown in
the past two decades, according to a Public Religion Research
Institute/RNS Religion News survey from November 2011. The same poll
found that about 67 percent oppose "cutting federal funding for social
programs that help the poor" to help reduce the budget deficit.
Outside
of Medicaid, federal spending on major low-income assistance programs
such as food stamps, disability aid and tax credits have been mostly
flat at roughly 1.5 percent of the gross domestic product from 1975 to
the 1990s. Spending spiked higher to 2.3 percent of GDP after Obama's
stimulus program in 2009 temporarily expanded unemployment insurance and
tax credits for the poor.
The U.S. safety net may soon offer
little comfort to people such as Jose Gorrin, 52, who lives in the
western Miami suburb of Hialeah Gardens. Arriving from Cuba in 1980, he
was able to earn a decent living as a plumber for years, providing for
his children and ex-wife. But things turned sour in 2007 and in the past
two years he has barely worked, surviving on the occasional odd job.
His unemployment aid has run out, and he's too young to draw Social Security.
Holding
a paper bag of still-warm bread he'd just bought for lunch, Gorrin said
he hasn't decided whom he'll vote for in November, expressing little
confidence the presidential candidates can solve the nation's economic
problems. "They all promise to help when they're candidates," Gorrin
said, adding, "I hope things turn around. I already left Cuba. I don't
know where else I can go."
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The safest place for your baby to sleep is on his or her back, in a crib, cradle or bassinet. Health Canada recommends room sharing for the first six months of your baby's life.
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A
bassinet that meets current Canadian safety regulations is an
appropriate place for your baby to sleep until he or she reaches the
maximum weight recommended by the manufacturer OR until your baby can
roll over, whichever comes first. When your baby reaches this
milestone, you should put him or her to sleep in a cradle or crib.
A crib that meets current Canadian safety regulations is the safest
place for your baby to sleep. A crib should not be used if the child is
taller than 90 cm or if he or she is able to climb out of it,
whichever comes first. When your baby reaches this milestone, you
should put him or her to sleep in a toddler or standard bed.
Playpens are not
intended to be used for unsupervised sleep because they do not meet
the same safety requirements and are not as durable as cribs.
It
is not safe for babies to be in a seated or semi-reclined position, in
products like strollers and car seats to sleep. When sleeping, a baby's
head can fall forward because their muscles are under- developed, and
their airway can become constricted.
Portable
bed rails are often installed on standard adult beds to keep children
from falling out, but they can cause your child to become trapped if
not used properly.
Make sure the top bunk has guard rails on all four sides of the bed, even if the bed is pushed up against a wall.